Southern California is keeping a close eye on a tropical system that could develop over the next few days off the coast of Mexico and, depending on its track, could bring tropical moisture into the San Diego region next weekend.

According to weather forecasters, a low-pressure area located south-southwest of Mexico has favorable conditions to organize and potentially develop into a tropical system. However, there is still uncertainty about how it will develop and what path it could take.

While a direct impact on San Diego is not currently expected, the system could still influence local weather conditions as monsoonal and tropical moisture moves into the region.

The additional moisture could bring increased cloud cover and more humid conditions, particularly across inland areas and the mountains.

There is also a chance for periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms. Mountain and desert areas could see the most unsettled conditions, as tropical moisture can fuel heavier showers and thunderstorms.

Increased westerly winds in the afternoons with gusts 25-35 mph, locally higher through the San Gorgonio Pass will combine with afternoon relative humidities of 15 to 25 percent createing elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions most likely in the mountains through Wed. pic.twitter.com/ixCakEYBjx

— NWS San Diego (@NWSSanDiego) August 31, 2026

Changes in winds and ocean conditions along the coast are also possible as the system develops.

The storm’s track will be key in determining how much of an impact it could have on San Diego. A path closer to Baja California could bring more moisture into Southern California, while a system that stays farther offshore would likely have more limited effects on the region.

For now, forecasts remain subject to change, and meteorologists will continue monitoring the system as it develops over the coming days.