US inflation slowed down significantly last month, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve may soon conclude its most aggressive interest rate hikes in decades. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3% compared to the previous year. Excluding food and energy, the CPI rose by 0.2% from the previous month. Although the core measure of inflation has decreased, it remains above the Fed's target of 2%.

 

The report highlights that the slowdown is partly due to the comparison with June 2022, when energy prices rapidly increased following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite progress in reducing inflationary pressures, prices remain above the Fed's target. However, Treasury yields declined and stock futures rose after the report, reducing the chances of an additional Fed rate hike.

 

Housing costs accounted for the majority of the monthly increase, followed by energy prices. Used car prices experienced a decline after several months of increases. Fed officials are also concerned about commodity prices, which have shown signs of strength in recent months. Grocery prices and healthcare costs remained stable.

 

Despite the inflation slowdown, Fed officials remain concerned about the resilient labor market. The report indicates that employers continue to add jobs at a solid pace and wage gains remain strong. There is a debate among Fed officials regarding the relationship between wages and inflation. A separate report revealed that average hourly earnings adjusted for inflation increased in June, reinforcing the connection between wages and inflation.